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ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) Stock Analysis

This is a peer-relative look at ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO): its performance, risk, profitability, growth, financial strength, dividend, and valuation are each measured against its Transportation peers, so every number reads in context rather than in isolation.

Company Profile

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) trades as an ADR rather than ordinary local shares — read it with FX exposure, depositary-program fees, and dividend-withholding-tax differences in mind.

Company profile fields for ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO)
Profile ItemZTO
NameZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ADR
Country/RegionChina
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS Industry GroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
GICS Sub-IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Market Capitalization15.53 billion USD
CurrencyUSD
ExchangeNYSE
Listing DateOctober 27, 2016
Security TypeADR

Price Performance

Cumulative Growth

ZTO
GSPC
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ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) vs. S&P 500 (GSPC): Growth of a $10,000 investment over the past five years. Adjusted for dividends and splits.

Trailing Returns

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Trailing total returns for ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) and S&P 500 (GSPC). Returns over one year are annualized.

Calendar-Year Returns

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Calendar-year total returns for ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) and S&P 500 (GSPC). Each bar is that year's total return, measured year-end to year-end.

Performance Metrics

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) metric values compared with Transportation industry-group medians
MetricCurrent stock: ZTOIndustry group median
Total Return (1Y)11.22%22.71%
Total Return (3Y, Annualized)-1.86%14.66%
Total Return (5Y, Annualized)-3.82%3.98%

Risk Profile

Drawdown History

ZTO
GSPC
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ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) vs. S&P 500 (GSPC): Drawdown from the running peak over the past five years. Each line shows the decline from its prior peak; 0% marks a new high.

Return Distribution

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Distribution of monthly total returns for ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) and S&P 500 (GSPC). Each bar is the share of months whose return fell in that 5% bucket.

Risk Metrics

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) metric values compared with Transportation industry-group medians
MetricCurrent stock: ZTOIndustry group median
Volatility (1Y, Annualized)24.57%40.42%
Beta (5Y)-0.181.15
Max Drawdown (5Y)-49.55%-52.44%

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Risk-Return Positioning

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Each dot is a stock plotted by 1-year volatility (risk) and 1-year return. ZTO is highlighted; the dashed line is the Capital Allocation Line from the risk-free rate through the industry median — dots above it are stronger on a risk-adjusted basis.

Risk-Adjusted Metrics

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) metric values compared with Transportation industry-group medians
MetricCurrent stock: ZTOIndustry group median
Sharpe Ratio (1Y)0.280.46
Sortino Ratio (1Y)0.400.70

Profitability

ROE (TTM)

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) posts ROE of 16.28%, roughly around the peer group’s normal range. Shareholders’ equity is producing a return that looks broadly typical for the industry.

ZTO

Transportation industry group

16.28%

Group distribution
Max
45.08%
Q3
22.02%
ZTO
16.28%
Median
13.94%
Q1
2.89%
Min
-10.45%
Largest peers
UNP
38.75%
UPS
28.65%
CSX
26.39%
CNI
22.45%
ZTO
16.28%
UBER
12.33%
CP
8.27%
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Where ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) stands on ROE within its Transportation peer group — the box is the group’s distribution and the dots its largest members.

Net Margin (TTM)

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) keeps 19.04% of revenue as net profit, roughly in line with the peer group’s normal net margin range. Its full cost stack is taking a typical share of sales for the industry.

ZTO

Transportation industry group

19.04%

Group distribution
Max
50.36%
Q3
21.18%
ZTO
19.04%
Median
5.58%
Q1
1.55%
Min
-11.37%
Largest peers
UNP
28.90%
CNI
26.42%
CP
24.14%
CSX
23.97%
ZTO
19.04%
UBER
6.13%
UPS
4.84%
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Where ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) stands on net margin within its Transportation peer group — the box is the group’s distribution and the dots its largest members.

Operating Margin (TTM)

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) turns 22.19% of revenue into operating profit, roughly in line with the peer group’s normal operating margin range. Its core cost structure looks typical for the industry.

ZTO

Transportation industry group

22.19%

Group distribution
Max
59.18%
Q3
29.30%
ZTO
22.19%
Median
11.50%
Q1
4.62%
Min
-8.91%
Largest peers
CNI
41.52%
UNP
41.34%
CSX
39.26%
CP
38.56%
ZTO
22.19%
UBER
9.80%
UPS
9.28%
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Where ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) stands on operating margin within its Transportation peer group — the box is the group’s distribution and the dots its largest members.

Profitability Metrics

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) metric values compared with Transportation industry-group medians
MetricCurrent stock: ZTOIndustry group median
ROE (TTM)16.28%13.94%
ROA (TTM)7.38%4.95%
Net Margin (TTM)19.04%5.58%
Operating Margin (TTM)22.19%11.50%
Gross Margin (TTM)25.10%27.25%

Growth

Revenue Growth

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) grew revenue 10.88%, in the upper peer quartile. The top line is expanding faster than at most industry peers, which points to share gains or stronger pricing.

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ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO): Revenue Growth across different time periods, set against Transportation industry-group medians.

EPS Growth

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) grew earnings per share 4.58%, roughly around the peer group's normal range. Bottom-line momentum looks broadly typical for the industry.

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ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO): EPS Growth across different time periods, set against Transportation industry-group medians.

Growth Metrics

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) metric values compared with Transportation industry-group medians
MetricCurrent stock: ZTOIndustry group median
Revenue Growth (YoY)10.88%2.80%
Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR)11.54%1.66%
EPS Growth (YoY)4.58%-10.61%
EPS Growth (3Y CAGR)10.21%-7.47%

Financial Strength

Current Ratio (MRQ)

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) has current ratio of 1.67, above the industry’s typical middle range. Liquidity looks ample versus peers, though an unusually high cushion can also mean idle current assets or inefficient working capital.

ZTO

Transportation industry group

1.67

Group distribution
Max
2.58
ZTO
1.67
Q3
1.62
Median
1.16
Q1
0.78
Min
0.22
Largest peers
ZTO
1.67
UPS
1.24
UBER
1.23
UNP
1.16
CSX
0.84
CNI
0.82
CP
0.52
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Where ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) stands on current ratio within its Transportation peer group — the box is the group’s distribution and the dots its largest members.

Debt / Equity (MRQ)

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) has debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, roughly in line with the peer group’s normal leverage range. Its mix of debt and equity looks typical for the industry.

ZTO

Transportation industry group

0.35

Group distribution
Max
2.75
Q3
1.37
Median
0.78
ZTO
0.35
Q1
0.35
Min
0.00
Largest peers
UPS
2.03
UNP
1.41
CSX
1.35
CNI
1.09
UBER
0.61
CP
0.55
ZTO
0.35
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Where ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) stands on debt-to-equity ratio within its Transportation peer group — the box is the group’s distribution and the dots its largest members.

Financial Strength Metrics

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) metric values compared with Transportation industry-group medians
MetricCurrent stock: ZTOIndustry group median
Current Ratio (MRQ)1.671.16
Debt / Equity (MRQ)0.350.78
Net Debt / EBITDA-0.622.00

Dividends

Dividend Yield (TTM)

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) has dividend yield of 12.89%, above the entire industry range. That headline income is large, but yields this far above peers often come from a falling share price or an at-risk payout, so dividend safety matters more than the percentage itself.

ZTO

Transportation industry group

12.89%

Group distribution
ZTO
12.89%
Max
4.68%
Q3
1.99%
Median
0.74%
Q1
0.00%
Min
0.00%
Largest peers
ZTO
12.89%
UPS
5.91%
CNI
2.87%
UNP
1.87%
CSX
1.08%
CP
1.06%
UBER
0.00%
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Where ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) stands on dividend yield within its Transportation peer group — the box is the group’s distribution and the dots its largest members.

Dividend Payout Ratio (TTM)

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) has payout ratio of 38.36%, within the industry’s typical payout band. The dividend shares profits with investors while leaving earnings coverage that looks normal for the peer group.

ZTO

Transportation industry group

38.36%

Group distribution
Max
100.89%
Q3
41.68%
ZTO
38.36%
Median
20.43%
Q1
0.00%
Min
0.00%
Largest peers
UPS
126.40%
CNI
45.63%
UNP
43.37%
ZTO
38.36%
CSX
28.65%
CP
22.91%
UBER
0.00%
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Where ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) stands on payout ratio within its Transportation peer group — the box is the group’s distribution and the dots its largest members.

Dividend Metrics

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) metric values compared with Transportation industry-group medians
MetricCurrent stock: ZTOIndustry group median
Dividend Yield (TTM)12.89%0.74%
Dividend Payout Ratio (TTM)38.36%20.43%

Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) trades at P/E ratio of 11.37, near the industry’s usual earnings multiple. The stock is not showing a clear peer discount or premium on trailing earnings.

ZTO

Transportation industry group

11.37

Group distribution
Max
46.76
Q3
30.87
Median
20.58
ZTO
11.37
Q1
10.44
Min
0.00
Largest peers
UBER
40.35
CP
29.54
CSX
25.58
UNP
22.63
CNI
21.61
UPS
20.87
ZTO
11.37
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Where ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) stands on P/E ratio within its Transportation peer group — the box is the group’s distribution and the dots its largest members.

P/S Ratio (TTM)

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) trades at 0.29 on P/S ratio, in the lower sales-valuation quartile for its industry. That points to a cheaper revenue stream than most peers, with margin quality still doing the heavy lifting.

ZTO

Transportation industry group

0.29

Group distribution
Max
4.35
Q3
2.07
Median
0.93
Q1
0.53
ZTO
0.29
Min
0.04
Largest peers
UNP
6.54
CSX
6.09
CP
5.01
CNI
4.05
UBER
2.48
UPS
1.01
ZTO
0.29
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Where ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) stands on P/S ratio within its Transportation peer group — the box is the group’s distribution and the dots its largest members.

P/B Ratio (MRQ)

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) trades at 1.66 on P/B ratio, roughly in line with the industry’s normal price-to-book range. Its balance sheet is not being priced at a clear discount or premium versus peers.

ZTO

Transportation industry group

1.66

Group distribution
Max
6.29
Q3
3.39
Median
1.90
ZTO
1.66
Q1
1.03
Min
-2.07
Largest peers
UNP
7.83
CSX
6.29
UPS
6.15
UBER
5.06
CNI
4.77
CP
2.46
ZTO
1.66
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Where ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) stands on P/B ratio within its Transportation peer group — the box is the group’s distribution and the dots its largest members.

Valuation Metrics

ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) metric values compared with Transportation industry-group medians
MetricCurrent stock: ZTOIndustry group median
P/E Ratio (TTM)11.3720.58
P/S Ratio (TTM)0.290.93
P/B Ratio (MRQ)1.661.90
Free Cash Flow Yield (TTM)41.42%3.36%